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Posted onJanuary 16, 2012 - 12:28 am by Admin | 0 Comments

Energy has become an increasingly contentious issue on the world stage, from conflicts in the Middle East to the American "additction." Beneath these is a larger debate-- the idea that world oil production has reached a peak and is entering a decline. The following article explains the theory of peak oil and introduces some of its key supporters.

The Theory of M. King Hubbert

During the 1950's, '60s, and '70s, M. King Hubbert became a world-renowned geophysicist due to his disturbing prediction that the fossil-fuel era was to come to an end in the relatively near future.

Hubbert noticed that the production of typical oil reservoirs tend to follow a bell-shaped curve, reaching a peak and then declining irreversibly. He predicted that oil production in the United States would peak between 1966 and 1972. Although dismissed by most oil companies, economists and government agencies, the actual peak did occur, in 1970.

Hubbert then estimated that global oil production would peak between the years of 1990-2000. Due to inadequate data and minor flaws in the method itself, this prediction is generally considered too pessimistic. However, later researchers have corrected the data and methods, arriving at more reliable predictions that vary only about a decade from Hubbert's (Heinberg, 98-99).

Colin Campbell and ASPO

Perhaps the most renowned supporter of Hubbert's peak oil theory is Colin Campbell, co-founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO). A former geologist for Texaco and Amoco, he was also an executive and consultant for a number of oil companies. In the article " The End of Cheap Oil? " he came to the following conclusion:

"From an economic perspective, when the world runs completely out of oil is thus not directly relevant: what matters is when production begins to taper off. Beyond that point, prices will rise unless demand declines commensurately... we conclude that the decline will begin before 2010."


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